Pakistan Economy

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xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#61
Foreign investment jumps by 162pc Economy| Positive
Foreign direct investment (FDI) jumped 163 per cent to $222.6 million in July on a year-on-year basis, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) reported on Wednesday. FDI continued showing the upward trend that began in the second half of the preceding fiscal year. It grew 4.6pc in 2016-17. Click here for more

China plans petrochemical complex near Karachi Economy| Neutral
A Chinese proposal to set up a refinery along with a downstream petrochemical complex near Karachi is advancing steadily as requests for 500-1,000 acres has been submitted to the provincial governments of Sindh and Balochistan. The estimated cost of the project is about $4 billion. This was disclosed by Federation of Pakistan Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI) President Zubair M. Tufail after a meeting with the visiting Chinese delegation, led by Ms Li-Jial, Director Tianchen Engineering Corporation (TCC), at the Federation House on Wednesday. Click here for more

Pakistan all set to become major player in regional economy. Economy| Neutral
Prime Minister Shahid Khaqan Abbasi on Wednesday said that the government had initiated major policy reforms to facilitate business community. The prime minister expressed these remarks while talking to a delegation of Pakistan Business Council (PBC), led by PBC Vice Chairman Towfiq Chinoy, which called on him at the PM Office. PM Abbasi said that laws relating to establishment of Special Economic Zones (SEZs) had been formulated to attract investment in the country with complete freedom of transferring dividends and movement of capital. Click here for more

Oil tankers body warns of another strike Economy|Negative
The deadlock between the government the All Pakistan Oil Tankers Association (APOTA) still persist and the association warned of discontinuing oil supply if their demands were not accepted till August 20. “Our talks with National Highway Authority (NHA) and Oil and Gas Regulatory Authority (Ogra) have failed and the prime minister should resolve the issue till August 20 otherwise APOTA will discontinue oil supply,” said APOTA Chairman Yousaf Shawani.. Click here for more
 

BPositive

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Apr 7, 2017
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#62
Bold steps needed to check falling forex reserves Economy| Negative
The country’s foreign exchange reserves are feared to further deteriorate if the policymakers failed to take ‘orthodox’ measures to plug up bleeding balance of payments, analysts warned on Thursday. An eminent economist said the reserves fell $5 billion since October last year The country’s total foreign liquid reserves fell to $19.941 billion during the last week from $20 billion a week earlier. Foreign exchange reserves of banks stood at $5.631 billion. Click here for more
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#63
23 August 2017

Current account deficit swells two-fold to $2.053bln in July Currency| Negative
The country’s current account deficit swelled more than two-fold year-on-year to $2.053 billion in the first month of the current fiscal year of 2017/18 as growing imports damped the positive impact of a rise in exports in July Click here for more

15 projects worth Rs43bn approved Economy| Positive
The Central Development Working Party (CDWP) on Monday cleared a total of 15 development projects at an estimated cost of Rs42.7 billion. Click here for more

Businessmen expect amnesty to bring back USD20bn from abroad Economy| Positive
PBC has asked the government to offer an amnesty scheme to resident and non-resident Pakistani aimed at encouraging them to bring back their foreign wealth. Click here for more
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#64
Sindh approves 17 uplift schemes worth Rs7.2bn Economy| Positive
The Sindh Provincial Development Working Party (PDWP) on Wednesday approved 17 development schemes worth Rs7.23 billion. Click here for more

SBP sells Rs507 billion worth MTBs; yields remain unchanged Banks| Neutral
SBP sold Rs507 billion worth of market treasury bills at an auction on Wednesday, while yields remained flat, the central bank said. Click here for more

Rupee strengthens Currency| Neutral
The rupee continued to march upwards on Wednesday due to increase in remittance flows ahead of Eid-ul-Azha. Click here for more
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#65
Reserves down by $45m Economy| Neutral
Pakistan’s total liquid foreign exchange reserves amounted to $20 billion on Aug 25, down $45.2 million from a week ago. Click here for more

Govt decides to launch $1 bn Sukuk Bond after Eid Economy | Neutral
In a bid to bridge the financing gap on external accounts, the government has decided to kick-start the process for launching around $1 billion Sukuk Bond after Eidul Azha and the upcoming transaction will be accomplished by end October or early November this year. Click here for more

Rupee to stay under pressure Currency| Negative
Rupee is likely to stay under pressure during next week due to growing demand of dollars from importers and for corporate payments after Eid holidays Click here for more

Political News

Benazir murder case verdict leaves a lot to be desired

The judgment of the Anti-Terrorism Court (ATC), handed down after a decade, left unanswered the first and foremost question who planned, masterminded and executed the murder of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. Click here for more

International News

World equities drop after N Korea's latest N-test
Global stock markets slid Monday as investors sought safer bets after North Korea claimed to have tested a hydrogen bomb, one week after firing a ballistic missile over Japan. Click here for more

North Korea reportedly preparing to launch another missile
South Korea strengthened the deployment of a controversial US-made missile defense system and launched a huge show of military might on Monday in response to North Korea's hydrogen bomb test. Click here for more
 

xResearch

Active Member
Apr 9, 2017
1,537
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#66
SBP revises cash carrying limits for international travellers Economy| Positive
The outward/inward cash carrying limits for countries (other than India) have been enhanced to Rs10,000/- and in case of India, the limits have been enhanced to Rs3,000/-. Click here for more

Fiscal deficit hits four-year high at 5.8pc Economy | Negative
Pakistan’s fiscal deficit accumulated to a whopping 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and reached Rs1.864 trillion mark in absolute terms, the highest in four years of the PML-N government as well as in the country’s 70-year history.. Click here for more

SBP injects Rs1,410bln in market Economy| Neutral
The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) on Tuesday injected Rs1,410 billion in the money market for three days through its open market operation (OMO) Click here for more

Political News

Cases against Sharifs: NAB likely to decide on references this week
As unconfirmed reports swirled about the National Accountability Bureau (NAB) having rejected a recommendation to freeze the accounts of the Sharif family and bar them from leaving the country, it can be confirmed that a decision on filing references against them will be taken this week. Click here for more

International News

Asian shares slide as North Korea tensions continue to simmer
Stocks in Asia declined on Wednesday, following the fall on Wall Street, as investors remained jittery about North Korea. Click here for more
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
1,537
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#67
Inflation jumps to 3.4pc
Consumer inflation climbed to 3.4 per cent year-on-year in the month of August, mostly on the back of increase in prices of petroleum and perishable products. Month-on-month rise was 0.2pc, compared to 0.3pc increase in July, and 0.3pc in August 2016, according to figures released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1355817/inflation-jumps-to-34pc

Aptma Punjab slams cut in gas supply
The All Pakistan Textile Mills Association (Aptma) has rejected the unilateral and sudden reduction in the system gas supply by Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Ltd, apprehending further energy price disparity. The company has reduced the system gas supply to 28 per cent from 35pc, effective Sept 1, on account of fast approaching of winter.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1355818/aptma-punjab-slams-cut-in-gas-supply

BRICS commit to ‘intensify cooperation’ against terror financing, money laundering
The BRICS countries, following the summit in Xiamen, have committed to intensifying their cooperation against terror financing and money laundering, within the framework established by the United Nations, specifically the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). “We call for swift and effective implementation of relevant UNSC Resolutions and the FATF International Standards worldwide. We seek to intensify our cooperation in FATF and FATF-style regional bodies (FSRBs). We recall the responsibility of all states to prevent financing of terrorist networks and terrorist actions from their territories.”
https://www.dawn.com/news/1355822/brics-commit-to-intensify-cooperation-against-terror-financing-money-laundering

Fiscal deficit hits four-year high at 5.8pc
Pakistan’s fiscal deficit accumulated to a whopping 5.8 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) and reached Rs1.864 trillion mark in absolute terms, the highest in four years of the PML-N government as well as in the country’s 70-year history. Powered by devolution, the four provincial governments appeared pulling down the country’s fiscal resilience as they enter election mode with a spending spree, according to 2016-17 fiscal operations report of the federal government.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1355820/fiscal-deficit-hits-four-year-high-at-58pc

PPDWP approves six road projects worth Rs 8.6 billion
The Punjab Provincial Development Working Party approved six development schemes of road sector with an estimated cost of Rs 8.66 billion in its 14th meeting of current fiscal year 2017-18 presided over by Chairman P&D Muhammad Jahanzeb Khan. Secretary P&D Iftikhar Ali Sahoo, All Members of the Planning & Development Board, Provincial Secretaries concerned and other senior representatives of the relevant Provincial Departments also attended the meeting.
http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/09/20170906215043/

JS Bank, Zameen.com partners to fill home financing gap
JS Bank Limited and Zameen.com have signed a MoU to offer Zameen.com customers mortgage finance facility. This partnership shall enable JS Bank & Zameen.com customers in the buying, construction and renovation of their properties across Pakistan. Furthermore, millions of overseas Pakistanis searching for properties on the Zameen.com property portal will also be able to benefit from this partnership. The MoU signing ceremony was held at the JS Bank Private Banking office, at Ocean Towers.
http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/09/20170906215035/
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#68
Industry apprehensive about next GSP+ review
Industry leaders on Wednesday feared the country might lose its GSP+ status in the January 2018 review if it does not get certification on important international conventions related to human rights and environment. The industry leaders shared these apprehensions during a meeting with Federal Secretary Ministry of Commerce, Muhammad Younus Dagha at the Pakistan Hosiery Manufacturers Association (PHMA) House.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1356054/industry-apprehensive-about-next-gsp-review

Energy sector contributes over Rs1tr to national kitty
The federal government collected revenue of more than Rs1 trillion from the oil and gas sector in 2016-17. The oil and gas sector is the single largest revenue contributor to the national kitty. The collection from the sector was Rs912 billion in the preceding fiscal year. The annual increase in total revenue collection was 11 per cent, which is almost identical to the rise in the collection from the oil and gas sector.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1356059/energy-sector-contributes-over-rs1tr-to-national-kitty

Global trade financing gap hit $1.5tr in 2016
Business of all sizes continue to struggle to access sufficient credit, resulting in a global trade financing gap of $1.5 trillion in 2016, according to the Asian Development Bank (ADB). In a report released on Tuesday, the bank says developing Asia’s share of the trade finance gap was 40 per cent of the global trade.
https://www.dawn.com/news/1356051/global-trade-financing-gap-hit-15tr-in-2016

CPEC will also benefit Mideast: Dastgir
Nawaf Al Malki, Ambassador of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia called on Federal Minister for Defence, Engr Khurram Dastgir Khan and Secretary Defence Lieutenant-General Zameer-ul-Hassan Shah (retd) at Ministry of Defence, Rawalpindi on Wednesday. Federal Minister extended his good wishes for health and prosperity of the custodian of the Haram Shareef and the Holy mosques, King Salman Bin Abdul Aziz and mentioned the historical and enduring brotherly relations based on mutual trust.
http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/09/20170907215557/

Industrial sector to rely on expensive LNG: minister
Federal Minister for Commerce and Textile Muhammad Pervaiz Malik categorically stated that industrial sector will have to rely on expensive imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) to meet their requirements, unless sufficient indigenous gas reserves increase. Sui Northern Gas Pipeline Ltd (SNGPL) has cut the system's gas supply to the industrial sector to 28 percent from 35 percent effective 1 Sep on account of approaching winter.
http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/09/20170907215493/

Foreign investors shouldn’t be given preference over locals: PBIF
The president of the Pakistan Businessmen and Intellectuals Forum (PBIF), Mian Zahid Hussain, has demanded that foreign investors should not be given preference over local investors, saying favouring foreigners is not in the national interest. He said that the practice of sovereign guarantees should be stopped or approved only through the National Assembly because non-payment defames country.
http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/09/20170907215527/

Rs 130.32 billion released for uplift projects
The government has released Rs 130.32 billion (13 percent) for different development projects under Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2017-18 against the total budgeted allocation of Rs 1001 billion. According to the latest data released by Ministry of Planning, Development and Reforms, the government has released Rs 32 billion (10.5 percent of total budgeted amount) for development projects of various federal ministries against the total budgeted allocation of Rs 305.6 billion.
http://fp.brecorder.com/2017/09/20170907215475/

US keen to cooperate with Pakistan in energy sector
William Laitinen, Counselor for Economic Affairs at the US Embassy in Islamabad, said that many US companies were interested to explore Pakistan for export of LNG, adding that Pakistan could overcome its energy problem by developing close collaboration with the US. He said the US was one of the largest export destinations for Pakistan and bilateral trade between the two countries was improving..
http://nation.com.pk/business/07-Sep-2017/us-keen-to-cooperate-with-pakistan-in-energy-sector

Cement prices decline by up to Rs20/bag
The cement prices have declined by Rs10-20 per 50 kg bag to an average of Rs550 from the level of Rs560-570 in northern parts of the country because of multiple reasons. However, prices in South region remain intact at an average of Rs580/bag.

Market sources said the prices have come down due to low demand, as construction work is not in progress these days; however, the southern area where weather is normal the rate of the commodity is still high
http://nation.com.pk/business/07-Sep-2017/cement-prices-decline-by-up-to-rs20-bag

SNGPL to endeavor to supply blend of gas to industrial consumers
SNGPL Wednesday contradicted a news item that appeared in a section of press on September 6 (Wednesday), regarding reduction in blend of system gas being supplied to industrial sector from 35% to 28% wef September 1, 2017.
http://nation.com.pk/business/07-Sep-2017/corporate-corner

FBR’s failure costs provinces Rs170 billion
The provinces had to pay the price of Federal Board of Revenue’s (FBR) inability to meet tax collection target as they received Rs170 billion lesser than the projected amount from the federal government during last fiscal year. The federal government had transferred Rs1,965.8 billion to the provinces under National Finance Commission (NFC) award as against the budgeted amount of Rs2,135.8 billion during previous fiscal year 2016-17
http://nation.com.pk/business/07-Sep-2017/fbr-s-failure-costs-provinces-rs170-billion

Dagha says fall in exports a ‘big challenge’ for Pakistan
Federal commerce secretary Muhammad Younus Dagha said on Wednesday that the sharp fall in Pakistan's exports is a "big challenge" for the country, but added that the textile sector must regain its original place on the world markets by scaling up innovation of its products, better branding and higher output.The trade secretary hinted at bringing in a policy to ensure food security, especially wheat and sugar through increased cultivation space for cotton. He said that policy deals with wheat and sugar cultivations, two of the country's major food crops, needs a fresh approach.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/print/226607-SBP-gears-up-efforts-to-introduce-flexible-inflation-targets
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#69
AHL Research
22 September 2017


Trade Balance
Aug’17 Increasing Exports Soften Deficit Concerns

Trade Deficit: A Slight Recovery in Aug’17

According to latest data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), trade deficit for the month of Aug’17 clocked-in at USD 3.09bn, up by 16% YoY and down by 4% MoM. Imports witnessed a surge of 15% YoY and 2% MoM to USD 4.95bn while exports recorded an upturn of 13% YoY and 14% MoM to USD 1.87bn. The decline in trade deficit on sequential basis is attributable to higher exports whereby textile group cushioned the impact of rising imports.

During 2MFY18, trade deficit jumped up by 34% YoY to USD 6.29bn vis-à-vis USD 4.71bn amid a massive growth in imports (25% YoY; USD 9.79bn). Major import drivers were Food Group, Transport Group, Petroleum Group and Metal Group. While exports rose by 12% YoY to USD 3.5bn during the period given Basmati & other Rice registered a growth of 40% YoY, Fish exports swelled by 57% and exports of ready-made garments grew by 16% YoY.

Exports up by 14% MoM
Bifurcation of the latest released numbers by PBS for the month of Aug’17 indicates growth in exports of 13% YoY to USD 1.87bn compared to USD 1.65bn in SPLY was led by Rice (+53% YoY). This was followed by Fish (+24% YoY), Knitwear (+21% YoY), Bed wear (+15% YoY), Ready-made garments (+11% YoY), Towels (+12% YoY), Football (+25% YoY), Leather Gloves (+19% YoY), Chemical and Pharma Products (+47% YoY), Engineering Goods (+15% YoY) and Molasses (+100% YoY).

During 2MFY18, Exports witnessed an upswing of 12% YoY; key reasons for progress include i) rice exports recording a jump of 40% YoY to USD 224mn amid escalated volumes (+38%), ii) Readymade garments exports (up by 16% YoY in the wake of 21% YoY volumetric uptick), and iii) Molasses exports up by 9x times owed to mighty sugarcane production in Pakistan.

We believe that in order to curb the trade deficit, incumbent Government plans to expand the export package to other export-oriented sectors. Recent development that aided exports includes Federal government’s decision to allow export of 300,000mt of sugar with a rebate of PKR 10.7/kg given sharp decline in international sugar prices from USD 500/mt to USD 380/mt. The current sugar export quota can contribute USD 114mn (300,000mt * USD 380 price per m.t) to exports.
 

xResearch

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Apr 9, 2017
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#70
AHL Research
23 September 2017

Business & Economic developments during the week

ECC to approve textile package in upcoming huddle (Tribune)

Federal Trade and Commerce Minister Pervaiz Malik has announced that an upcoming meeting of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) will approve a textile package as the country's largest industry is always the top priority of the government. Talking to media at the start of the China Electrical and Mechanical Machinery Expo 2017 at the Lahore Expo Centre on Saturday, Malik insisted that the recent hike in gas prices would not cause harm to the industrial sector.

Relief as Habib Bank episode ends (Dawn)
A sigh of relief swept through financial circles in the country on Friday as the difficulties of HBL, the country's largest commercial bank, ended with a fine and nothing more. The quantum of the fine, at $225 million, is substantial, coming in at more than two-thirds of last year's total profit after tax, but poses no risk to the stability of the bank or the country's financial system, as was feared. The worst case scenario, according to a report from Arif Habib Ltd, is that the bank will pay no dividend in the next 12 months. "The fine will be financed via a foreign loan," says the report, adding that it will be reflected in third quarter calendar year 2017 results.

China, Russia to 'veto any US move at UN to slap sanctions on Pakistan' (Tribune)
China and Russia have assured Pakistan at the diplomatic level that they would veto any US move in the United Nations to slap economic sanctions on Islamabad, Daily Express has learnt from credible sources. The roller-coaster relations between Washington and Islamabad have frayed since President Donald Trump last month unveiled a new Afghan policy and hit out at Islamabad, accusing it of giving 'safe haven to agents of chaos' by harboring the Afghan Taliban and other militants.

Remittances rise by 13pc (Dawn)
Remittances sent by overseas Pakistani workers increased 13.2 per cent in the first two months of 2017-18, the SBP reported on Tuesday. Inflows from all major sources rose in July-August, indicating that the trend of negative growth witnessed in 2016-17 has reversed. The country received $3.49 billion in the period under review compared to $3.09bn in the same two months a year ago.

Pakistan's Liquid Foreign Reserves increase (BR)
The total liquid foreign reserves held by the country stood at US$ 20,585.2 million on 08 September 2017. A State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) statement here on Thursday said that the break-up of the foreign reserves position is as under: i) Foreign reserves held by the SBP: US$ 14,758.4 million. ii) Net foreign reserves held by commercial banks: US$ 5,826.8 million. iii) Total liquid foreign reserves: US$ 20,585.2 million. During the week ending 08 September 2017, SBP's reserves increased by US$ 77 million to US$ 14, 758 million, the statement further pointed out.

SBP to raise Rs3.80 trillion through MTBs, PIBs sale (The News)
The SBP will auction treasury and long-term papers worth Rs3.80 trillion during September-November 2017 period to finance the increasing budget deficit, the central bank said on Friday. In its latest auction calendar, the SBP said the government planned to borrow Rs3.550 trillion through the sale of three-, six-, and 12-month market treasury bills. The government would also raise Rs250 billion through the sale of three-, five-, 10-year, and 20-year PIBs.